Have you considered that mistakes in decisions or judgments could be a result of faulty reasoning that could be avoided? In trying to exercise logical or critical thinking, we have found that our minds resist the idea of structured analysis. Our intuitive thought processes want to quickly resolve the issues instead of putting effort into objectively evaluating the information and choices. This post is part 1 of 2 addressing six different mistakes that are made when conducting analysis.
Commonly, people begin their problem solving by formulating a conclusion or their favored course of action. They will start thinking and considering the issue, quickly looking at the information. Intuitively they can settle onto a solution and immediately start working towards proving that is the best one. This is not following the problem solving loop from my previous post on the Problem Solving Loop.
Consider the car buyer that decides they want a certain model of SUV from their favorite manufacturer. Instead of objectively looking at options, the person has already made a choice at the start of the process instead of coming up with the decision at the end. While that new SUV owner might be happy with their choice, it was not a choice based upon analysis and critical thinking.
While focusing on that initial solution we intuitively favored, we start ignoring alternative solutions and evidence that contradicts the preferred choice. That SUV buyer skipped looking at min-van type vehicles that would also meet their needs. Even a group following the problem solving loop could still go through the motions and focus on that favored choice instead of applying critical thinking at the various steps. They might think the process is working great, confirming their intuition.
Sometimes that intuitively favored solution is a choice that appears satisfactory. Without even considering alternatives or detailed analysis of that choice, it is easier and faster to just go with it. Our SUV buyer doesn’t like car shopping and mistrusts all those sales people they have to deal with and they decide to purchase the first SUV they looked at. This “satisficing” is a time saver for busy people and when it works out they think they made a good choice.
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Sure, when people start engaging in more concentrated thinking and start considering different criteria for a decision they are doing some analysis. I think that is a good thing.
But others, I wonder how much is that analysis truly objective or looking at justifying their original inclinations? I think back at some of my own tendencies and impulses that needed to be resisted.
I think you can make intelligent decisions if you have enough time and consider it important enough. Purchasing is a good example. Some purchasing is important enough that you need to take the time to assess your needs. This can be a lengthy process requiring research. Some decisions need to be made quickly so that a thorough assessment can not be made. In that case you accept a less optimum result. Then there are decisions you consider trivial which ends in impulse buying. The results may be totally unacceptable so you throw it out & get something more suitable.