Too often judgements are made based upon less than perfect information. Hey, my wallet was not on my dresser. I remembered having it at lunch, but I changed clothes after work to go to the gym. So I checked my pants’ pocket, then my gym bag. Not there. It was not in my office either. From what I remembered, it should have been in one of those places, so someone else must have been involved. Somebody must have stolen it!
There are many explanations why information can be inaccurate. There are misperceptions and misinterpretations. The evidence can be incomplete. There can be biases in how it was obtained or reported. The initial evaluation could have been impacted by someone else’s misunderstanding or missed distortions.
People often cannot recall the source of some evidence and rely upon their judgement of it instead. As a result, they will have made the choice to believe or discredit the information using their best guess. Then going forward, that evidence that was not rejected unconsciously gets used like it was 100% factual, where it was maybe barely above a 50% in credibility. If you have multiple pieces of evidence with similar guesses made, then your resulting conclusion could be highly unlikely.
A critical thinker would evaluate the evidence and recall the probability of that information’s likelihood when using it to determine a solution or explanation. While the best guess might still be the leading answer initially, its chance of being correct would be unlikely without better evidence with higher credibility coming available. My wallet was found in my underwear drawer, I probably knocked it off the dresser when I was putting my folded laundry away.
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